TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The National Hurricane Center is watching a broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that has a high chance of tropical development over the next five days, and it could pose a threat to the Gulf Coast.
The low was centered in the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba and west of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday morning. The upper-level cloud cover showed good anticyclonic banding on the northern side earlier Saturday morning, a good sign of favorable upper-level conditions. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms also developed Saturday morning, but there wasn’t any sign of organization just yet. Recent scatterometer data from polar-orbiting satellites have yet to provide evidence of a closed center of circulation.
The storm has a chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s also expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
The forecast path of the low is a challenge because of the large spread with the operational and ensemble forecast models. With the low being relatively weak as well as the lack of data in the region, the uncertainty is there with the forecast models. The ensemble forecasts with the European and American GFS models range a “landfall” anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle with varying strengths. There should be a better understanding with the forecast track over the next several days.
The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf are 80 degrees or warmer in the offshore waters, and water temps are slightly above normal in most of the Gulf of Mexico. But, the ocean heat content overall is night and day compared to the Caribbean Sea (high) and Gulf of Mexico (fairly low). The lower heat content in the Gulf could help tame a tropical cyclone’s potential strength.
The odds of tropical development were at 90% for the next two to five days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s outlook Saturday morning. The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the system.
Copyright 2020 WCTV. All rights reserved.
"low" - Google News
October 24, 2020 at 10:51PM
https://ift.tt/3on4H7j
Low in Caribbean Sea has high chance of tropical development - WCTV
"low" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2z1WHDx
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Low in Caribbean Sea has high chance of tropical development - WCTV"
Post a Comment