10 Buy-Low MLB Trade Candidates of the 2023 Trade Season
0 of 10
There are a few sure things among the top candidates to be moved before Major League Baseball's Aug. 1 trade deadline. Marcus Stroman comes to mind. As does Lucas Giolito. And so on.
But what about the riskier targets? Are any of them worth pursuing for teams in search of great reward?
Glad you asked. Because the idea here is to look at 10 trade candidates who arguably fall on the "buy low" side of the spectrum, yet who have the potential to turn the corner to better results down the stretch of 2023. And in some cases, even 2024 and beyond as well.
The list is split evenly between five hitters and five pitchers. Going in alphabetical order, we'll start with the former.
SS Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
1 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 69 G, 298 PA, 0 HR, 9 SB, .223 AVG, .258 OBP, .262 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023, with club option for 2024
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Monday that the White Sox are ready to sell, but in doing so he clarified that Dylan Cease, Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr. are off limits.
Though Tim Anderson's name is conspicuously absent from that list, one can't imagine that Chicago general manager Rick Hahn is in any hurry to move the eight-year veteran either.
Anderson was at his best between 2019 and 2022, hitting .318 while also providing power, speed and solid defense at shortstop. No thanks to knee and shoulder injuries, what we're seeing now in 2023 is him at his absolute worst. It's, uh, not good for his trade value.
But while the White Sox could hold Anderson, pick up his 2024 option and hope he plays more like himself next season, they're not in position to turn away interested parties in the interim. And any team that strongly believes Anderson can revert to the Anderson of old might be one desperate enough to pay above the market rate to get him.
LF/RF Seth Brown, Oakland Athletics
2 of 10
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 50 G, 181 PA, 9 HR, 2 SB, .200 AVG, .271 OBP, .394 SLG
Contract Status: Under club control through 2026
It might be necessary to defend Seth Brown's inclusion on this list, so we'll begin by noting that he was 14 percent better than the average hitter while cranking 45 home runs across 2021 and 2022.
He obviously hasn't resembled that guy so far in 2023. He sat for over a month in April and May with an oblique injury and he has just a .675 OPS since his return.
On one plus side, Brown has recently shown signs of life with five home runs in his last 13 appearances. On another, key batted ball metrics like his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are actually up from 2022.
As for the A's, nothing screams "obvious seller" quite like a 25-69 record. And while they don't have to hurry to trade Brown in the abstract, his age and looming arbitration eligibility in 2024 look like things that could spook them into dealing him.
1B C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
3 of 10
Age: 33
2023 Stats: 49 G, 193 PA, 8 HR, 0 SB, .251 AVG, .295 OBP, .441 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
C.J. Cron's first two seasons in Denver were a notable success marked by 57 home runs and 194 runs driven in.
This year started out with more of the same as the 10-yet vet cranked six home runs in April, but then he subsequently went on the injured list with back spasms on May 15. He's played only 13 games since he returned on June 27.
AT&T SportsNet™ | RM @ATTSportsNetRMThat ball was CRUSHED into the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CronZone?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CronZone</a> 👀<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockies?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rockies</a> <a href="https://t.co/dzs75rH7WX">pic.twitter.com/dzs75rH7WX</a>
The good news is that Cron has been hot in these 13 games, batting .326 with a pair of home runs. And like Brown, his under-the-hood batting metrics look pretty good.
It's hard to discuss Cron's trade status without noting the Rockies' strange aversion to trading guys they like, much less the general complication that is the Coors Field factor. The 6'4", 235-pounder should nonetheless be near the top of teams' lists of options for affordable, yet dangerous right-handed sluggers.
OF Adam Duvall, Boston Red Sox
4 of 10
Age: 34
2023 Stats: 33 G, 132 PA, 7 HR, 2 SB, .256 AVG, .326 OBP, .538 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
The Red Sox are different from the White Sox, A's and Rockies in one very notable respect. At 49-44, they're only two games off the pace in the American League wild-card hunt.
The Red Sox are nonetheless a last-place team, not to mention one dangerously short on starting pitching depth. If that bites them between now and Aug. 1, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if they ended up as reluctant sellers instead of cautious buyers.
As to Adam Duvall, his strong overall numbers don't really tell the story of his 2023 season. He was positively scorching out of the gate, but then he broke his left wrist on April 9. He had just a .598 OPS since his return on June 9.
Still, Duvall is the kind of guy a contender should want to have around in case he gets hot. He's been known to do that, including when he hit 19 home runs in 71 total games for an Atlanta team that won the World Series in 2021.
LF Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 10
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 29 G, 99 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .228 AVG, .283 OBP, .337 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Nobody expected the Cardinals to be in last place in the National League Central coming out of the All-Star break but, well, there they are.
Per president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, the Cardinals are ready to act accordingly. They'll be open for business ahead of Aug. 1, albeit with some limitations.
B/R Walk-Off @BRWalkoffCardinals are up for business. 👀 <a href="https://t.co/skBKZv7Qtt">pic.twitter.com/skBKZv7Qtt</a>
Pending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks are likely goners. And even though he's controlled through 2024, Tyler O'Neill could be as well so long as his rehab from a back injury continues to go well.
Between his diminished returns since he received MVP votes in 2021 and his early clash with manager Oli Marmol this year, O'Neill looks like a classic change-of-scenery candidate. And if such a change were to do the trick, his new team would stand to gain a powerful slugger who also plays Gold Glove-winning defense for the remainder of this year and the next.
RHP Scott Barlow, Kansas City Royals
6 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 32 G, 27 GF, 33.0 IP, 28 H (3 HR), 44 K, 16 BB, 4.09 ERA
Contract Status: Under club control through 2024
Switching now to the pitching side of things, we find Scott Barlow with a substantially higher ERA than the 2.30 figure he put up across the two previous seasons.
Additional red flags aren't hard to find. For example, there's his elevated walk rate and how his average fastball velocity is down about 2 mph from its 95.4 mph peak in 2021.
Yet the actual act of hitting Barlow hasn't gotten any easier. His slider and curveball are still holding opposing batters to averages in the .100s, and he remains well above average with his whiff (85th percentile) and hard-hit (93rd percentile) rates.
So even if Barlow's best velocity is gone for good, he can still be trusted to work in high-leverage spots. Pitchers like that are obviously good things to have for would-be World Series contenders, and Barlow's additional year of club control should likewise attract contenders of a less ambitious sort.
RHP Michael Fulmer, Chicago Cubs
7 of 10
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 41 G, 12 GF, 41.0 IP, 34 H (5 HR), 42 K, 19 BB, 4.61 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Michael Fulmer was once a Rookie of the Year winner and an All-Star as a starting pitcher, but that's perhaps never felt more like ancient history than it does now.
After he missed all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Detroit Tigers converted Fulmer into a reliever back in 2021. He was mostly successful in this new role that year and in 2022, but his tenure with the Cubs has thus far been rockier.
Until recently, that is. Fulmer has quietly been on a roll over his last 18 appearances, highlighted by a 1.33 ERA. Uncoincidentally, he's been putting more trust in a new sweeper that's held hitters to an .074 average in this span.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaMichael Fulmer, 84mph Frisbee Sweeper. 🥏 <a href="https://t.co/E5vjfZ7pKT">pic.twitter.com/E5vjfZ7pKT</a>
If not as a high-leverage reliever for all situations, a team could target Fulmer as a shutdown arm against right-handed hitters, who have a .585 OPS against him. Either way, he'll be a good get if the Cubs open for business ahead of Aug. 1.
RHP Joe Kelly, Chicago White Sox
8 of 10
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 29 G, 4 GF, 28.0 IP, 25 H (3 HR), 37 K, 10 BB, 4.82 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023, with club option for 2024
This is a "health permitting" situation, as Joe Kelly didn't pitch for the rest of the first half after not feeling quite right during an appearance on July 4. He was diagnosed with elbow inflammation.
That's ominous stuff, and it's fair to make the case that Kelly wouldn't be an attractive trade target even if he was fully healthy. He's inconsistent in the best of times, and his 5.54 ERA goes to show his two seasons with the White Sox don't fit that bill.
If nothing else, though, you can always count on the 12-year veteran to be among baseball's hardest throwers. And results aside, he's doing many things well. His walk rate isn't bad by his usual standards, while his whiff, strikeout and hard-hit rates are all better than average.
This is the kind of guy you trade for and hope that things subsequently click for him. When that happens, the Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers are two teams who can vouch for how valuable Kelly can be.
RHP Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox
9 of 10
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 19 GS, 108.1 IP, 115 H (24 HR), 133 K, 40 BB, 6.06 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023, with club option for 2024
Speaking of struggling White Sox hurlers, Lance Lynn holds the distinction of being the major league leader for both home runs and earned runs allowed.
That's less than ideal, and ditto for how the 12-year veteran's fastball velocity is down 2 mph from its peak in 2019. And it's not like he gets by on changing speeds. Fastballs account for 81.1 percent of his pitches.
But as if to prove he's still got it, Lynn struck out a season-high 16 batters back on June 18 and promptly followed with an 11-strikeout game in his last start before the All-Star break.
MLB @MLBBrilliance on the bump!<br><br>Lance Lynn struck out 11 in 7 IP. 😤 <a href="https://t.co/ck2fBcjxxg">pic.twitter.com/ck2fBcjxxg</a>
Lynn has slightly altered his pitch mix to feature fewer sinkers and more sliders, but this has looked more like a case of him doing better at avoiding the fat part of the zone. If he can keep that up, he could function as a top-of-the-rotation type on a new team.
RHP Max Scherzer, New York Mets
10 of 10
Age: 38
2023 Stats: 16 GS, 87.2 IP, 85 H (18 HR), 101 K, 23 BB, 4.31 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023, with player option for 2024
It feels weird to refer to Max Scherzer as a buy-low trade candidate. Heck, it might even be such a reach as to be a criminal one.
Then again, he's on track for his worst ERA since all the way back in 2011. And at 93.6 mph, his average fastball is the lowest it's been since 2014. Just from looking at these two things, you'd swear that the three-time Cy Young Award winner had finally hit a wall.
Yet Scherzer's peripheral metrics suggest he deserves better. He's also, you know, Max Scherzer. And he has frequently looked the part this year, including in his seven quality starts.
Mets owner Steve Cohen didn't even want to think about trading Scherzer when he held a press conference on June 28, but the man himself is reportedly open to waiving his no-trade clause. If the Mets do put him on the block, one wonders if Cohen could simply buy out the remainder of the ace's $43.3 million salary for the sake of recouping talent in a deal.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
"low" - Google News
July 16, 2023 at 10:34AM
https://ift.tt/t9iCxfN
10 Buy-Low MLB Trade Candidates of the 2023 Trade Season - Bleacher Report
"low" - Google News
https://ift.tt/HOzQ4hw
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "10 Buy-Low MLB Trade Candidates of the 2023 Trade Season - Bleacher Report"
Post a Comment