Through his first three seasons in the majors, Cody Bellinger was unquestionably one of the best players in the National League. He was the 2017 Rookie of the Year and the 2019 National League MVP at 23 years old. A two-time All-Star. In those three years, he hit 111 home runs.
Then, of course, something went awry. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bellinger batted just .239 with a .789 OPS. Things got even worse in 2021: a .542 OPS in 95 games, and a batting average of .165. Bellinger’s 2022 campaign was slightly improved; he boosted his OPS to .654 and hit 19 home runs in 550 plate appearances.
But at only 27, it’s safe to say it’s too early to call Bellinger a bust.
That’s why the Cubs signing him to a one-year, $12 million deal with a $5.5 million buyout if they don’t pick up a 2024 option is a great move. It’s the archetype of very low risk with potentially immense reward. If Bellinger regains his old form, even something close to it, the Cubs will have struck gold.
Even if he doesn’t, Bellinger can be a stopgap option defensively who can fill center field and help at first base. If he repeats numbers similar to 2022 — .210/.265/.389 with 19 home runs and 27 doubles — that’s not great, by anyone’s thinking, but it’s enough to justify using him for a season while the Cubs figure out if Matt Mervis is really their first baseman of the future and if Christopher Morel can put together a full, productive season.
But the reality is that Bellinger is not that far removed from being the guy who posted a .629 slugging percentage and led the league in intentional walks. In 2019, Bellinger was as dangerous a hitter as anyone.
And it’s not a pipedream to think that he could find that form again, or something close to it. His 2020 season can be dismissed, that year was an anomaly for everyone. Early in the 2021 season, he suffered a fractured left fibula. An injury that sidelined him for months and has probably kept him from hitting like himself ever since. His slightly improved numbers in 2022 might be a sign that he’s trending in the right direction already.
In October, Tieran Alexander broke down why he thinks Bellinger has struggled at the plate, and he attributed it to a chance in Bellinger’s batting stance, specifically his foot placement.
The most problematic element of Bellinger’s swing now is a weight transfer that used to be amongst his biggest strengths. An inefficient weight transfer can lead to instability in the bat path. This is why Bellinger is hitting so many more mishits despite contact rates in line with his career norms, and his bat angle not changing at all. The inconsistent attack angles because his weight transfer isn't consistent have led to him frequently swinging underneath pitches in recent years. This is why the wOBAcons are down so much, more than anything else that might have changed.
The change in Bellinger’s foot placement was necessitated by his leg injury, suffered early in the 2021 season. It’s possible that if he is fully healthy again, Bellinger can fix his stance. And presumably, if he fixes his stance, he might start hitting like his old self again.
And again, there might have been signs in 2022 that he was on that track. He flipped his fWAR from -1 in 2021 to 1.7, and Bellinger’s ISO rose from .137 to .179. His hard hit rate (38.1%) was up too, and he was barreling more balls in 2022. Bellinger had an average exit velocity (89.4 mph) in 2022 that was his highest since 2019, and he hit on the sweet spot more than in 2021 and the most often since 2019.
A lot of those kinds of numbers match up with what Bellinger did his second season. In 2018, he had an .814 OPS, down from his rookie year and nowhere close to his 2019 numbers, but that year he was still good enough for 3.5 fWAR.
Even if that version of Bellinger is what the Cubs get in 2023, they will have improved significantly. It’s fair to be skeptical that a player who dropped off so significantly can ever find it again, and this one-year contract from the Cubs is Bellinger’s chance to show that he can. A showcase opportunity that could lead to the Cubs keeping him around for years to come, or the ability to flip him at the deadline, depending on how the season goes.
The Cubs might not be on the seller’s track, however. They also signed Jameson Taillon late Tuesday night, and multiple reports still have them connected to all three of Carlos Correa, Xander Boegarts, and Dansby Swanson. More than one that has them potentially signing both Boegarts and Swanson.
If they do land at least one of those three players, the 2023 Cubs are shaping up to be competitive again. And if Bellinger can keep trending upward, they could be the surprise team to keep on eye on.
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December 07, 2022 at 11:11PM
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Cody Bellinger Is The Perfect Low-Risk, High-Reward Choice For The Chicago Cubs - Forbes
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