Here's a little peek behind the scenes of the CBS Sports HQ PM newsletter. You see, yesterday, when I filed the letter, I had written in the lede about how the Chicago Bulls should trade Lauri Markannen to the San Antonio Spurs in a sign-and-trade to land DeMar DeRozan. Before we sent the newsletter, the Bulls did trade for DeRozan, though they didn't use Lauri Markannen to do it.
I take this to mean that I have incredible powers that I'm not fully aware of. And like anybody who wields a tremendous amount of power, I'd like to abuse it. So I'm writing here right now that I think the Bulls should now package Lauri Markannen in a sign-and-trade to Portland to get Damian Lillard. I also think that Aaron Rodgers should show the Green Bay Packers who is boss and announce his retirement just before Week 1 of the NFL season.
So, there you go, universe. I've said it; now make it happen.
Oh, and while you're at it, universe, these following bets need to win too.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Astros at Dodgers, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 8.5 (+105): Why mess with a good thing? I told you to take the under in this contest last night, and it cashed with ease as the Astros won 3-0. I don't see tonight's game playing out much differently, but we get the bonus of the extra juice on the total.
If there's any concern, it's the fact that there's a noticeable difference between last night's Astros starter Lance McCullers and tonight's Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi's strikeout rate is much lower than McCullers' (28.2% to 21.8%), but that's offset a bit by Odorizzi's control (a 7.7% walk rate to McCullers' 11.6%). My confidence also comes from the fact that Max Scherzer will be making his Dodgers debut tonight.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Zack Cimini and Matt Severance to dish out Wednesday's best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
No matter what uniform he's wearing, Max Scherzer is still Max Scherzer. He comes into tonight with a strikeout rate of 34.3% and a walk rate of 6.5%. He's somewhat homer prone, but the ball doesn't carry all that well in Dodger Stadium after dark, and the dingers he does allow are usually solo shots since he rarely lets hitters reach base. Expect another low-scoring, close affair in Chavez Ravine tonight.
Key Trend: The under is 14-5-2 in the last 21 meetings, including 5-2-1 in the last eight in Los Angeles.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model doesn't like much in this game, but it does see a slight edge on one side of the money line.
💰The Picks
⚾ MLB
Cleveland at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-115) -- Ok, so we are changing one thing up tonight. Last night we were on the Cleveland money line and lost, and now tonight, I'm telling you to take the Blue Jays on the run line. What changed? Well, I liked last night's matchup a lot better for Cleveland than tonight's. The Blue Jays have one of the most potent offenses in baseball. Toronto ranks second in baseball in run rate, and its HR rate of 4.16% is the highest in baseball. Guess what Cleveland starter J.C. Mejia has a tendency to give up? Mejia has allowed 10 home runs in 45 innings, which is a rate that's 57% higher than the league average. It's not great! He also has a walk rate of 9.5%, paired with a low strikeout rate of 21.5%. The Jays lineup should feast tonight.
Key Trend: Toronto has won five of six as a favorite.
⚽ MLS
FC Cincinnati at New York Red Bulls, 8 p.m | TV: ESPN+
The Pick: Red Bulls (-150) -- We're diving into the soccer pool tonight because there's too much value on the Red Bulls in this spot. The Red Bulls have been a bit disappointing this season, as they currently sit in ninth in MLS' Eastern Conference, but the underlying numbers suggest they aren't terrible. More important to our interests, NYRB has been a much better team at home than on the road.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati has allowed an average of 2.2 goals per game on the road this season, and its expected goal differential (xGD) per match on the road has been -0.77. That's one of the worst marks in the league. I have a hard time seeing Cincinnati managing anything better than a draw here, and I'm not all that confident that happens, either. So give me New York.
Key Trend: The Red Bulls score 1.71 goals per game at home compared to 1.0 on the road.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The Advanced Computer Model is madly in love with one side of the money line in tonight's game between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets. Does the ACM subscribe to our NL Least Principle, though?
💸 The DFS Rundown
Top Three Starters
Value Starter
Today's Top Stack
Value Hitter
Full lineup advice
⚾ NL Least Parlay
Let's make the Mets a little more uncomfortable by taking two NL East teams to win tonight. The parlay pays +273.
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August 05, 2021 at 04:11AM
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Max Scherzer makes Dodgers debut and that will mean a low-scoring night as L.A. hosts the Astros - CBS Sports
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