“I think the trends are troubling,” Joshua Wynne, head of the NDUS Smart Restart task force and dean of the UND medical school, said during a task force meeting Thursday, Aug. 27.
Turnout for testing that was meant to “try to preclude a major outbreak on one of the campuses” was “disappointing,” Wynne said. Estimates show that about 14% of the 41,000 students across the system were tested prior to starting classes this week, Wynne said, noting those numbers vary from campus to campus. UND, for example, has tested about 30% of the student population, President Andrew Armacost said.
“I think it means that many students may be at risk of transmitting the disease because they don’t know it, and we don’t know it because effective testing has not been done,” Wynne said.
It is estimated that 2,000 students across the system could theoretically be infected as the positivity rate in the state is around 5%, Wynne said.
“I think that, if it’s true that a similar positivity rate is in fact present in the students not tested, 'Houston, we have a problem,'” he said.
Testing, while highly encouraged by the system and campuses, was not required for students.
The state, planning for high volumes of testing, allocated more than 28,000 tests for the university system, according to Vern Dosch, the North Dakota contact tracing administrator. In total, about 13,000 people were tested on college campuses, including students, faculty, staff and the general public.
“Our expectations for the participation of the students was considerably higher than that it was,” said Dosch, a major player in the planning of the university system’s testing project.
There were 42 testing sites planned to specifically tailor to college populations, Dosch said. Additionally, much of the state lab’s capacity was moved to create room for the university system testing. Testing requirements for long-term care were moved to a third-party lab for the two- to three-week time frame so there was as much capacity as possible to test the college population.
Meanwhile, active cases of COVID-19 are increasing across North Dakota, particularly in the Bismarck and Grand Forks areas. Burleigh and Morton counties have reported 418 and 115 active cases, respectively. Grand Forks County, which reported 76 new active cases on Thursday, Aug. 27, most of which are believed to be tied to UND and the recent return of students. The county now has 442 active positives, 86% of those cases are between the ages of 15 and 29.
Across the state, there are 1,995 active cases of COVID-19, including 655 positives in the 19-20 age group and 249 in the 15-19 age group.
Dr. Paul Carson, director of the North Dakota State University Center for Immunization Research and Education, said the increased positive cases were not unexpected, given the number of people that would be traveling from different places and bringing the virus with them.
“I’m pleased that we found a chunk of them and, hopefully, that's interdicting a number of potential transitions,” he said. “We certainly would have liked to see more people tested.”
And while testing numbers were low, Carson said the cases identified may have been stopped quickly before massive spread becomes a major issue.
“That exponential growth (that was) hopefully prevented is still substantial and we really appreciate massive efforts you guys did,” Carson said. “That actually may have interdicted potentially thousands (of people) within a couple of weeks … being exposed, isolated and quarantined.”
Testing moving forward
The system is working to understand why the testing turnout was so low. System leaders noted there could be many reasons for this. Students may have felt uneasy about the nasopharyngeal tests or may have thought they didn’t need to get tested if they weren’t symptomatic.
NDUS Chancellor Mark Hagerott said students have been supportive of the system’s efforts to mitigate COVID, including complying with mask requirements on campus and following other protocols.
If campuses are to remain open throughout the fall, Wynne said there will need to be good testing participation from students, faculty and staff so campuses can control the spread of the virus as much as possible.
“Is a pivot to online a possibility? Absolutely. Is it something predetermined to occur? Absolutely not,” Wynne said.
State Board of Higher Education Chair Nick Hacker said the restart task force is reviewing the campus data each week. Some campuses are thinking through their next steps, he said during the SBHE’s special meeting on Thursday, Aug. 27.
Efforts are being stepped up in Fargo to provide testing for North Dakota State students this week. UND also hosted another testing event on Thursday.
UND is doing sentinel testing of high risk groups, such as athletes and performers, to test them repeatedly throughout the semester, Armacost said.
As the system continues to encourage students to get tested, Dosch said campuses will have to be strategic to get the word out.
The system and health department also are considering how it will move forward with its second wave of testing. The health department is in the process of validating saliva testing where an individual spits into a tube, rather than having their nose/mouth swabbed. That testing may be rolled out on college campuses in the coming weeks as a part of a pilot program.
UND
UND is reporting 254 current self-reported positive cases in the past two weeks, including 241 student cases as of 3 p.m. -- but that isn’t necessarily an accurate measure of the virus’ spread at the university because students or employees counted in that figure may not live in or near Grand Forks County. In total, 626 students, faculty and staff are either in quarantine or isolation, 63 of those individuals are in quarantine hotel rooms and 75 are in isolation rooms.
While the numbers are high at UND, Wynne said the campus has a better idea of how the virus is affecting campus because of the testing it has done. Between Wednesday, Aug. 19, and Monday, Aug. 24, more than 3,000 UND campus members were tested, including 2,635 students, 289 staff members and 121 faculty members. UND’s positivity rate is around 8%.
The testing allows the university to isolate those who test positive for COVID-19, while quarantining close contacts so they are not potentially spreading the disease. Armacost said about a one-third of students who were in quarantine ultimately ended up testing positive for the virus.
“I wish (the positive cases) weren’t there but, since they’re identified, that is the way we can control it,” he said.
Public health is working to better understand where the cases came from or whether the uptick was caused by community spread, Wynne said.
UND is also hiring contact tracers for the university.
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August 28, 2020 at 05:00AM
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University system sees low testing turnout - Grand Forks Herald
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