Topline
Supporters of former President Donald Trump organized a series of lackluster protests in Manhattan on Monday ahead of his looming indictment, and while Democrats feared the potential charges could ignite a redo of the January 6 Capitol riots, some conservatives said the legal consequences of the insurrection deterred them from demonstrating.
Key Facts
Approximately 50 Trump backers, according to Politico, gathered Monday outside of the Manhattan Criminal Court, where some told reporters there were fears among conservatives that law enforcement would unfairly target demonstrators.
New York Young Republicans Club President Gavin Wax, who organized the Manhattan demonstration, told Politico: “We weren’t sure we even wanted to come out, because some people don’t like us.”
Wax also suggested that the protest wasn’t well attended because fewer Trump supporters live in New York City, telling reporters, “Everyone can make fun of however many people are here, but we’re in lower Manhattan, I mean, this is not Tennessee, this is not Alabama.”
Other protesters directly attributed the small turnout to January 6: Norman Ross told Politico that conservative groups were circulating warnings to each other via social media, saying that they were “nervous that this would be a setup” and “they would be arrested like January 6.”
Trump on Saturday called for his supporters to “protest, take our nation back,” while claiming without evidence that he would be arrested on Tuesday.
Key Background
Trump faces a possible indictment in connection to alleged hush-money payments his former lawyer and personal fixer Michael Cohen made to adult film star Stormy Daniels on his behalf ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump could potentially be charged with falsifying business records, since Cohen was reimbursed by the Trump Organization under a contract that falsely specified the money was for legal fees, according to federal prosecutors who handled the related case against Cohen in 2018. In that case, federal prosecutors also found the money constituted a campaign finance violation, because it was intended to sway the results of the 2016 presidential election. The charges could come as soon as Wednesday, when the grand jury meets again and could vote on an indictment.
Contra
Democrats in Congress expressed fears that Trump’s calls for protests could lead to violence similar to the January 6 Capitol riots and urged law enforcement authorities to prepare accordingly. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) said Trump’s calls for protests included “dark rhetoric” that “clearly evokes the language which the former president used to provoke the January 6th insurrection” in a Monday letter, first reported by Axios, to Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland asking them to prepare for potential violence.
Surprising Fact
Some authorities said they observed a “significant increase” in extremist rhetoric in the days following Trump’s calls for protests, CBS News reported, and the DC Fusion Center reported that it recorded “the most significant 24-hour” increase in calls for violence since the FBI raided Mar-A-Lago in August, according to ABC News. Law enforcement in D.C. and New York City prepped for chaos on Monday and Tuesday, erecting barricades outside of the Capitol, the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse and Trump Tower in midtown, while monitoring social media for possible threats and calls for violence.
What To Watch For
Heavier police presence is expected this week in and around Manhattan, where the NYPD is preparing to deploy helicopter surveillance, armored vehicles and SWAT teams to strategic locations in the event that Trump is indicted, CBS reported.
Tangent
Some prominent Republican Trump allies in Congress urged Trump’s supporters not to protest, while also discrediting the case against him, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). “We don’t need to protest,” Greene tweeted, claiming that Democrats are “sealing their own fate” and will aid Trump’s re-election prospects if he is indicted. McCarthy on Tuesday also criticized the case as politically motivated and said the payments to Daniels were made with “personal money,” rather than campaign cash.
Further Reading
New York And D.C. Beef Up Security For Possible Trump Indictment Unrest (Forbes)
Will Trump Be Arrested Tuesday? Here’s What We Know—But It’s Unlikely (Forbes)
Here’s What Will Happen If Trump Is Arrested (Yes, He'll Probably Get A Mugshot) (Forbes)
New York And D.C. Beef Up Security For Possible Trump Indictment Unrest (Forbes)
Trump Says He Will Be Arrested Tuesday—Urges Supporters To Protest (Forbes)
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Trump Supporters Blame Low Protest Turnout On Fears Of A 'Setup' By Law Enforcement - Forbes
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