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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking... & realize the cone is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage therefore do not become fixated on the center of a tropical system.
The nontropical low pressure (was the Nor’easter offshore of New England) will continue to move east through the weekend while slowing far out to sea. It’s possible there may be some subtropical or even tropical characteristics that gradually develop.... while drifting over the Central/North Atlantic. The low will turn more southeast into next week gradually moving over warmer sea surface temps. which may help the transition. Eventually - later next week - the low will be picked up by another upper level trough turning & accelerating the system to the north & northeast but - again - not directly impacting any land areas.
No “new” tropical cyclones so far this month within the Atlantic Basin & such an October is rather rare. Only 3 times since 2000 has there not been at least one named Oct. tropical cyclone: 2002 (did have a t.d. develop in Oct.).... 2006 & 2015 (though did have a Nov. tropical storm).
Meanwhile... a cold front has pushed into the Western Atlantic across Cuba into the NW Caribbean triggering clusters of showers & t’storms. Low pressure may form not too far from Bermuda but tropical development is not expected.
And a tropical wave is off the coast of Africa over the far E. Atlantic. Some short term development is possible, but the wave will likely struggle in the long run.
Ocean temps. remain relatively “fit” to help maintain tropical cyclones... even at this late stage in the hurricane season.
Sea surface temps. across the Atlantic remain above avg. across much of the basin (2nd image below) & - even more importantly - deep oceanic heat content is quite impressive & the “equivalent oceanic heat content” - namely depth averaged temperature in the upper 300 m (~984 feet) - is even more impressive over the Central & SW Atlantic & Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. From an AMS research paper in ‘08 Mainelli, DeMaria, Shay, Goni: “Results show that for a large sample of Atlantic storms, the OHC variations have a small but positive impact on the intensity forecasts. However, for intense storms, the effect of the OHC is much more significant, suggestive of its importance on rapid intensification. The OHC input improved the average intensity errors of the SHIPS forecasts by up to 5% for all cases from the category 5 storms, and up to 20% for individual storms, with the maximum improvement for the 72–96-h forecasts. The statistical results obtained indicate that the OHC only becomes important when it has values much larger than that required to support a tropical cyclone.” More recent research continues to indicate similar correlations.
Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones.
2021 names..... “Wanda” is the next & last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning this year that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & remains pretty impressive late in the season from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific IR satellite:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group
"low" - Google News
October 30, 2021 at 07:35PM
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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic low pressure could become subtropical - WOKV
"low" - Google News
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