Here is The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
New jobless claims, which remained stubbornly high in Oregon last spring, are down substantially over the past few weeks.
Fewer than 4,200 Oregonians filed new claims for benefits last week, the lowest number since October. The number of new Oregon claims is now below the average number of new claims in the 10 weeks before the pandemic.
That’s a hopeful sign. Oregon’s jobless rate was near an all-time low until COVID-19 hit. The dearth of new layoffs this summer, combined with a steep fall in the number of people collecting benefits each week, suggests the state may have a path to get back to something like full employment.
“Employers added as many payroll jobs in the first six months of this year as they did in the 22 months leading up to the pandemic,” Oregon Employment Department economist Gail Krumenauer wrote in an email. “We still have a large gap to full jobs recovery, but the recalls of workers to their jobs and much additional hiring is bringing people back into the workforce.”
It’s no great mystery why claims are falling now. Oregon has pulled down nearly all COVID-19 restrictions over the past few months, enabling bars, restaurants, hotels, movie theaters and other sectors to reopen after an unprecedented downturn leading into the pandemic.
What’s a little more confounding is why Oregon claims didn’t fall sooner.
The number of new unemployment claims began a steep decline across the country early last spring. Through May, though, claims remained elevated in Oregon. The employment department said fraud was a “significant” reason why Oregon’s claims weren’t dropping faster.
Cyberthieves have stolen billions of dollars in jobless benefits nationwide during the pandemic. It’s not clear how much Oregon has lost — the state won’t say for fear of tempting the crooks — but claims its losses aren’t as great as elsewhere. It does appear that attempted fraud hit Oregon somewhat later than it hit other states.
Fraud isn’t the whole story, though. Oregon endured a fresh set of business closures last fall as COVID-19 levels spiked. Restaurants, bars and gyms shut down, accompanied by a fresh batch of layoffs.
The “freeze” that began in November affected 53,000 workers, according to an analysis by Krumenauer, producing 19,000 more new claims and 34,000 renewed claims. A fresh wave of COVID-19 cases that hit Oregon last spring peaked in late April.
At the same time, some jobless Oregonians were hitting the one-year anniversary of layoffs that began in the spring of 2020. Krumenauer said that meant they had to file new initial claims to continue receiving benefits.
As vaccines proliferated, though, health restrictions eased and the economy sprang back to life. Oregon’s reopening came later than in some other states, Krumenauer noted, and that kept the number of new jobless claims comparatively high into summer.
Now, though, the economy is reopening rapidly, and the number of new jobless claims is back near historic lows. The current upswell in COVID-19 cases associated with the delta variant is introducing uncertainty into the state’s economic outlook, but the state has given no indication it is considering new business shutdowns and there is no sign yet of any weakness in the job market.
“From my perspective,” Krumenauer said, “we’re seeing a lot of people getting back to work after a couple of waves of economic measures undertaken for health and safety against the spread of COVID-19.”
-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway |
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August 01, 2021 at 09:48PM
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Oregon Insight: New jobless claims are falling again — will they stay low? - OregonLive
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