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NFL Week 3 betting notes - Low-scoring Aaron Rodgers-Tom Brady duel? - ESPN

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Week 3 features nine home underdogs, meaning that through three weeks, there have been 23 home underdogs. That is the most through three weeks since the 1970 merger. Home underdogs have gone 8-5-1 ATS so far this season.

The biggest trend so far entering Week 3 relates to totals. Unders are hitting at a 68% clip this season, the highest under percentage through two weeks since 1996. Prime-time unders have gone 6-1 this season, and they've hit at a 58% rate over the past three seasons.

Perhaps the most interesting total is in Tampa Bay, as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The total currently sits in the low 40s. In four previous Rodgers-Brady meetings, the total was at least 53 each time with an average of 55.5. That is the highest average total in any head-to-head quarterback matchup in the past 35 seasons (minimum three games).

A couple of streaks are on the line this week. The Carolina Panthers have lost nine consecutive games, both outright and ATS. That is one shy of the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era (done twice previously). Last week, they lost as a favorite to the New York Giants after being an underdog most of the week. The Giants have now been underdogs in 16 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-5), Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET

  • The Steelers are 44-24-3 against the spread as underdogs under coach Mike Tomlin (37-34 outright). Since Tomlin's first season in 2007, the Steelers are the only team over .500 outright as an underdog. Since 2018, Pittsburgh is 20-7-2 ATS as an underdog.

  • Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its past six games as a favorite. Overall, the Browns are 7-15 ATS as a favorite under coach Kevin Stefanski.

  • Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in division games and 6-19 ATS in conference games under Stefanski.

  • Over the past 10 seasons, unders are 48-28-1 in Steelers' road games.

  • This is the first time Pittsburgh has been an underdog in its first three games since 1992 (started 3-0).

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the previous four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

  • Teams favored between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). Home favorites of 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Carolina has lost nine straight games against the spread, tied for the second-longest streak by any team in the past 20 seasons, second to the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who lost 10 straight.

  • The Panthers have lost all nine of those games outright. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have lost 10 straight games both outright and ATS -- the 1981 Baltimore Colts and the 2005-06 Oakland Raiders, who both lost exactly 10.

  • Since 2016, New Orleans is 35-15 ATS on the road (.700), the best mark in the NFL in that span. It is 19-9 ATS as a road favorite in that span.

  • Since 2015, New Orleans is 29-15 ATS against division opponents. Since 2016, Carolina is 12-24 ATS against division opponents.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that have previously won a game.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Chicago was 3-0 ATS as a home favorite last season. It's the second time Justin Fields will be a favorite in his 13th NFL start (1-0 ATS).

  • Houston is 2-0 ATS this season and is 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

  • This is Davis Mills' 14th career start. He was at least a six-point underdog in each of his first 13 starts until this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog under coach Frank Reich.

  • Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. QB Matt Ryan is 0-5-1 ATS in his past six starts.

  • Kansas City is 47-25-1 ATS on the road under coach Andy Reid (.653), the best mark in the NFL in that span.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Since Josh Allen's second season (2019), Buffalo is 17-7-1 ATS on the road, the second-best mark in the NFL after Arizona.

  • Allen is 19-6-2 ATS in his past 27 starts, including 5-0-1 his past six starts.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 14-8-1 ATS in his career, including 9-3 ATS at home.

  • Buffalo is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight division games. Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 division games.

  • The current total of 53.5 is by far the highest in any Buffalo-Miami meeting in the previous 35 seasons (previous high: 48.5 done in 2021 and 1992).

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS as Lions coach as an underdog of at least four points.

  • Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its past eight conference games.

  • Minnesota has covered the spread the past four times it has been a favorite (1-0 this season).

  • Over the past 10 seasons, Minnesota is a league-best 41-21-2 ATS after a loss (.661).

  • Teams favored between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). Home favorites of 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).

  • The current total of 53.5 matches the highest in any Detroit game in the past 35 seasons, which has happened four times previously, most recently in 2020.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New England Patriots, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Bill Belichick is 15-5 ATS and 12-8 outright as a home underdog with New England. Out of 46 coaches to be home underdogs at least 20 times in the Super Bowl era, including playoffs, his 15-5 ATS mark is the best. Overall, Belichick is 51-27-1 ATS as an underdog with New England.

  • Belichick is 6-1 ATS against Ravens coach John Harbaugh in the regular season (0-4 ATS in playoffs).

  • Lamar Jackson is 16-7-2 ATS in his career on the road.

  • Since 2019, Baltimore is 11-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Cincinnati is the third team 0-2 or worse in the past 25 seasons to be a road favorite of at least four points (first since 2019 Washington at Miami). The previous two are 2-0 straight up and 1-1 ATS.

  • The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as a home underdog (0-6 outright). The last time they won outright as home underdog was in Week 8 of last season, when they upset Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog.

  • Unders are 17-8 in coach Zac Taylor road games.

  • The Jets are 1-13 outright and 2-12 ATS in their previous 14 September games, though they won last week.

  • Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 are 46-29-1 ATS against teams that have previously won a game.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Titans coach Mike Vrabel is 8-4 ATS and outright as a home underdog, and he was 3-0 outright last season.

  • Since 2017, Las Vegas is 1-8-1 ATS as a road favorite and 1-5 since moving to Las Vegas.

  • Las Vegas is 1-6 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

  • Carson Wentz is 5-1 ATS in his past six games as an underdog.

  • Since 2016, Washington is 6-12 ATS at home in division games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers (-7), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

  • Los Angeles has covered nine straight meetings (since 2010).

  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its past five road games.

  • Los Angeles' previous eight September games have gone under the total.

  • QB Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS as at least a seven-point home favorite.

  • QB Trevor Lawrence is 2-7 ATS on the road.

  • Teams favored between 4-7 points are 2-11 ATS this season and 36-58 ATS since the start of last season (.383). Home favorites of 4-7 points are 16-37 ATS over the past two seasons (.302).

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Rams coach Sean McVay is 10-1 outright and ATS against Arizona, including playoffs, and 6-1 ATS against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Arizona is 19-9-1 ATS as an underdog under Kingsbury, going 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a road favorite.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • Atlanta is 5-0 outright and ATS in road games under coach Arthur Smith when it is not at least a seven-point underdog.

  • Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is 15-4 ATS in his past 19 games without Russell Wilson.

  • QB Geno Smith is 9-1 ATS in his past 10 starts and 22-14 ATS in his career.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

  • The current over/under of 41 is tied for the second lowest in any Aaron Rodgers start prior to December. His only lower total came in his first career start in 2008. It's the lowest September/October total in a Tom Brady start since 2010. In four prior meetings between Brady and Rodgers, the over/under was at least 53 every time with an average of 55.5, which is the highest average in any head-to-head quarterback matchup in the past 35 seasons.

  • Brady is 3-1 ATS against Rodgers, covering the past three meetings (including playoffs). Unders are 3-1 in their matchups.

  • Green Bay is 33-18 ATS (.647) under coach Matt LaFleur, the best mark in the NFL in that span. Brady is 188-124-6 ATS (.602) in his career, the second-best mark in the Super Bowl era among 89 quarterbacks to make 100 starts.

  • Green Bay is 9-3 ATS as an underdog under LaFleur, including 4-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games.

  • Tampa Bay has covered four straight games when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Tampa Bay is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games as a home favorite and 6-1 ATS in his past seven games in that role.

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Denver Broncos, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

  • The lookahead line was Denver -3. It opened at 2.5 after Sunday's games (when Trey Lance was injured), and now San Francisco is favored.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 13-16-2 ATS as a favorite and 13-3 ATS as an underdog.

  • Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is 15-24-2 ATS as a favorite.

  • Denver has covered three straight as a home underdog. Since the 1970 merger, Denver is 55-32-2 ATS as a home underdog. QB Russell Wilson is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.

  • Shanahan is 13-7-1 ATS in nonconference games.

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season. Over the past three seasons, home underdogs are 27-19 ATS in prime-time games.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

  • Last season, Dallas was 8-1 ATS on the road, 6-0 ATS in division games and 4-0 ATS with extra rest.

  • Dallas is 8-2 ATS against New York since 2017.

  • Cooper Rush is 2-0 outright as a starter in his career, both as at least a four-point underdog.

  • New York is 0-3 ATS as a favorite since 2020 and 4-10-1 ATs in its past 15 games as a favorite. Last week, the Giants closed as an underdog after being favored most of the week against Carolina.

  • Unders are 94-67-3 in prime-time games over the past four seasons (.584), including 6-1 this season.

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NFL Week 3 betting notes - Low-scoring Aaron Rodgers-Tom Brady duel? - ESPN
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