After ticking up the previous week, the local seven-day average of COVID-19 infections per capita declined over the past week to 3.3 per 100,000 residents, which is higher than counties to our north but below the statewide rate of 4.
Still, the county reported two more local COVID-19 deaths on Sunday, May 30 – those of one resident in their 20s and one in their 40s. The recent fatalities bring the total number of local residents in their 20s lost to COVID-19 to five and the total in their 40s to 24, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
Last week, the VDH removed three deaths from Prince William County’s pandemic death toll, those of two residents in their 70s and one age 80 or older. The most recent fatalities and those adjustments bring the local health district’s overall death toll to 557.
Statewide, Virginia continues to report an average of 10 COVID-19 deaths a day and an average of 338 new cases a day. The number suggest that while COVID-19 vaccinations have greatly reduced the transmission of the virus in recent weeks, the pandemic is still not over.
In its latest weekly report, the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute notes that vaccinated people have only a .01% chance of contracting the virus, based on a recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that the U.S. has seen only 10,262 “breakthrough” infections in the new year out of more than 100 million vaccinated. About one in four of those were asymptomatic.
But that low chance of infection applies only to those who are vaccinated, the institute notes.
“Much of Virginia remains unvaccinated, and among these unvaccinated pockets, the outlook really hasn't changed,” the report notes. “Transmission rates are as high as they were in April, variants are now predominant, and restrictions are being relaxed.”
“For the unvaccinated population, it is as important as ever to follow public health precautions such as maintaining social distancing and wearing a mask,” the report adds.
The Memorial Day holiday, traditionally a time for social gatherings, coincides with further loosening of restrictions, which raises the risk of greater transmission.
“Despite important successes in recent weeks, over half of Virginians are not yet fully vaccinated and are still at risk for COVID infection. Until fully vaccinated, public health precautions remain necessary,” the report says.
Cases
Prince William County reported seven new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, May 30, and is now reporting an average of 16 a day, down about 36% from the seven-day average of about 25 cases a day the previous week. The state reported 227 cases on Sunday and is now reporting an average of 338 per day. That’s about 27% lower than the seven-day average of 464 case the previous week.
Hospitalizations
There were 12 local hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the past week, up from four the previous week. They included one of a resident in their 20s, three in their 30s, one in their 40s, three in their 50s, one in their 60s, two in their 70s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Across the state, the number of people hospitalized as of Saturday, May 22, was 500l, down from 561 the previous week.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
The rates of COVID-19 infections throughout Northern Virginia are now in the low range and vary from negative .8 cases per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to 9.9 cases per 100,000 residents in Fauquier County.
In most areas, the rates of infection per capita declined over the past week, except in Fauquier County, where the rate of infection per capita rose to 9.9 over the past week
Percent-positivity rate
Meanwhile, the local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ticked up slightly from 2.8% last week to 3.2% this week. Both are below the 5% target understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
Monday, May 24:COVID-19 cases tick up locally, county marks its 500th death
The local rate of COVID-19 infections per capita, while still low, crept up a bit over the past week – rising from 3 infections per 100,000 residents to 5.4. Also, the Prince William Health District has reported four additional COVID-19 deaths, bringing the county’s death toll to a new milestone: 500.
The latest local fatalities included three men and one woman. One was in their 30s, bringing the number of local residents lost to COVID-19 between the ages of 30 and 39 to 10. Across Virginia, 92 people in their 30s have died due to COVID-19 since the pandemic began, according to VDH data.
The other recent local deaths included one person in their 50s, bringing the death toll in that age group to 59, and two people in their 70s. Prince William County, Manassas and Manassas Park have so far lost 141 people in their 70s to COVID-19, according to VDH.
All four of the recent victims were residents of Prince William County. The total local death toll is now 558, and includes 500 residents of Prince William County, 47 of the City of Manassas and 11 of Manassas Park.
Local cases
The Prince William Health District is now reporting an average of 25 cases a day, up from 18 last week, or an increase of about 41%. The rate of infection per capita, however, is still in the “low” range at 5.4 cases per capita. Anything below 10 cases per 100,000 residents is considered low.
Across the state, however, confirmed cases have declined to 464 per day, a drop of 34% since the prior week. This is 64% lower than the previous 2021 low and 61% below the summer highs of 2020, according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes the pandemic in Virginia.
Cases are declining or plateauing in all of Virginia's local health districts -- a first since the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute began reporting trajectories, the institute’s most recent report said.
The numbers suggest that the vaccinations and ongoing vigilance by Virginia residents have overcome the rise in more contagious variants, even though the B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the United Kingdom, now accounts for just more than 80% of the samples sequenced in Virginia, according to the UVA institute’s May 21 report.
All five “variants of concern” have been detected in Virginia. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.K. variant is most prevalent in the region, but variants from Brazil, South Africa, California, New York and India have all been detected through genomic testing.
Hospitalizations
There were four local hospitalizations for COVID-19 in the past week, those of one resident in their 30s, two in their 60s and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
Across the state, the number of people hospitalized as of Saturday, May 22, was 561, down nearly 20% from the previous week. As of Monday, May 24, the number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 had fallen even further to 503, including 100 in Northern Virginia.
Rate of COVID-19 per capita
The rates of COVID-19 infections throughout Northern Virginia are now in the low range and vary from .8 cases per 100,000 residents in Manassas Park to 7 cases per 100,000 residents in Stafford County.
In most areas, the rates of infection per capita declined over the past week, except in Prince William and Fauquier counties, both of which saw slight increases.
Percent-positivity rate
Meanwhile, the local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests ticked down from 3% last week to 2.8% this week. Both are below the 5% target understood to be an indication that there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
ZIP Code data
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 12 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in eight.
Average daily cases rose in eight ZIP Codes: 20112, 20136, 20181, 20187, 22025, 22026, 22134 and 22193.
Average daily cases remained the same in 10 ZIP Codes: 20109, 20111, 20119, 20137, 20143, 20155, 20169, 22172, 22125 and 22192.
Average cases were down in two local ZIP Codes: 20110 and 22191.
Thursday, May 20: Despite sharp decline in cases, county reports 7 more deaths
Prince William County’s rate of COVID-19 infections per capita and its percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 fell over the past week to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic.
Still, the county reported seven more deaths due to COVID-19 in the past week, including those of one resident in their 40s and two in their 50s, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The most recent fatalities included six men and one woman. Three were in their 60s and one was in their 70s. All were residents of Prince William County, which has now lost 496 residents to the pandemic. Across the Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park, the overall death toll is 554.
Despite the ongoing losses, COVID-19 metrics continue to improve both in the county and across the state.
In Virginia, average daily cases have dropped 28% over the last week to seven per 100,000, while the percent-positivity rate dipped to 3.2%, well below the targeted rate of 5%.
The Prince William Health District is averaging about 14 cases per day, down about two-thirds from last Saturday, May 8, according to VDH data. The county’s rate of infection per capita is now 3 per 100,000 residents – falling into the “lower case load” category for the first time in several months.
Meanwhile, the local percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests is 3%, which is also below the 5% target understood to be an indication there is enough testing being done to identify most cases of the disease.
At the peak of the pandemic in mid-January, the local health district was reporting an average of 499 cases a day.
There were six local hospitalizations for COVID-19 last week, including those of one resident in their 30s, one in their 40s and two in their 50s.
Across the state, 615 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 as of May 19, down about 26% from last week. Of those, 188 were in intensive care units and 98 were on ventilators, also down over the past week.
ZIP Code data
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 19 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only one.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Code 20187.
Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20119, 20137, 20143, 20169, 20181, 22025, 22125, 22134 and 22172.
Average cases were down in 11 local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20136, 20155, 22025, 22026, 22191, 22192 and 22193.
Tuesday, May 11: Prince William loses 3 more to COVID-19 as daily cases plummet
The deaths of three more Prince William County residents to COVID-19 were reported in recent days even as the number of cases reported daily has plummeted to fewer than 20.
Prince William County reported just 18 new cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, May 11, and 12 on Monday, May 10. That's the lowest number of daily cases reported since August 2020.
Meanwhile, however, the county has lost three more men to COVID-19. Two were in their 50s and one was age 80 or older, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The Prince William Health District, which includes the county, Manassas and Manassas Park, has so far lost 317 men and 230 women since the start of the pandemic, according to VDH data.
The recent decline in daily cases has pushed the county's seven-day average rate of daily COVID-19 cases per capita to 9.7 cases per 100,000 residents. That's the lowest it's been since late July.
The county's percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 5.2% on Tuesday, just above the 5% target, which is widely considered to be the level at which enough testing is being done to identify most cases of COVID-19.
Saturday, May 8: NOVA’s high vaccine acceptance rate will likely ward off a summer surge, county adds 3 more deaths
Northern Virginia, because of its relatively high COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate, could be largely protected from a possible surge in COVID-19 cases this summer, according to the latest report from the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
The UVA institute, which has been analyzing the pandemic in Virginia and predicting its future, notes that Northern Virginia, including Prince William County, will likely be better protected from a surge that could result if infections from faster-spreading variants of COVID-19 occur amid a climate of waning mitigation efforts – including mask-wearing and social distancing – and stalled vaccine uptake.
The institute now forecasts a worst-case scenario peak of 73 cases per 100,000 residents by Aug. 1. By comparison, during the mid-January peak of the pandemic in Virginia, the state saw 68 cases per 100,000 residents.
“Even under the worst-case scenario, the Northern region can expect to avoid another peak,” the latest weekly report states. “Conversely, several districts in Northwest [Virginia] could experience another surge if behavior relaxes as variants predominate.”
The state’s Northwest districts include some directly adjacent to Prince William County, including the Rappahannock-Rapidan Health District, which includes Fauquier, Culpeper, Madison, Orange and Rappahannock counties. A section of Culpeper County is included on a map of “hot spots” this week.
A summer surge is predicted in Virginia health districts with lower levels of COVID-19 acceptance, listed on the left, while Northern Virginia districts, on the right, are now forecast to avoid a surge, even under worst-case scenario conditions.
“Across the state, most health districts look like the Northwest districts,” the report continued. “However, Henrico, Chesterfield, Richmond, Chesapeake and Roanoke City join the Northern health districts in avoiding another surge even under the worst-case scenario.”
Estimates for vaccine acceptance rates vary from a low of 41% in the state’s Eastern Region to 87% in the Northern Region. The results were derived from a phone survey conducted by the Virginia Department of Health and surveys conducted via Facebook.
Local cases, vaccinations
Cases in Virginia continued to decline this past week with the current per capita rate of infection at 9.3 cases per 100,000 residents, far below the January peak.
Prince William County’s rate of COVID-19 cases per capita ticked up slightly in the past week, from 11.1 to 11.5 per 100,000, and its percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests remained steady at 5.6%.
The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 794 on Saturday, May 8, down about 23% from last week’s 1,032 cases.
Locally, the seven-day average of daily cases is 54, up from 52.1 last week. Cases had been on a steady decline in the county since about April 18, when they reached a high of about 116 cases per day -- a spring surge that has since receded. Average daily cases hit a high of 499 on Jan. 20, 2021, according to the VDH.
About 43.7% of Prince William County’s population has received at least one dose of vaccine, up from 42% last week. About 31.7% of the county’s population is fully vaccinated, according to VDH data.
Northern Virginia is projected to achieve “community immunity” by late June – the earliest of any region in the commonwealth – again because of relatively strong demand for the vaccine, the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute said in its April 30 report.
Local deaths
Prince William County reported three more COVID-19 deaths over the past week, including those of one woman and two men, one of whom was in their 60s and two of whom were in their 70s.
Local hospitalizations
There were 14 local hospitalizations reported in the past week, up from 12 the week before. One young person between the ages of 10 and 19 was hospitalized along with two residents in their 30s; four in their 40s; one in their 50s; one in their 60s; four in their 70s; and one age 80 or older, according to VDH data.
The number of people hospitalized across the state for COVID-19 on Saturday, May 8, dipped to 799, down about 10% from the 885 hospitalized last Saturday, May 1.
Of those hospitalized, 203 were in intensive care units, down from 224 last week. There were 116 on ventilators, down from 128 last week. About 77% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 29% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
Percent-positivity rate
The statewide percent-positivity rate on COVID-19 tests was 4.5% this week, down from 4.7% last week. Prince William’s 5.6% rate was third in the Northern Virginia region, behind the Rappahannock Rapidan Health District, which had a rate of 6.5% on Saturday, and the Rappahannock Health District, which reported a rate of 8.1%.
Rate of infection per 100,000 residents
The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita ticked up to 11.5 per 100,000 residents, up from 11.1 last week. Spotsylvania County, which is in the Rappahannock Health District, is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 18 per 100,000 residents, down from 18.2 last week.
Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of -3.4 per 100,000 residents in the City of Manassas, which had 20 cases removed from its tally on May 5, to a high of 18 per 100,000 residents in Spotsylvania County.
Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 9.3, down from 12.1 last week.
ZIP Code data
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 18 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only two.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20109 and 22026.
Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20110, 20119, 20137, 20143, 20155, 20181, 22025, 22125 and 22134.
Average cases were down in nine local ZIP Codes: 20111, 20112, 20136, 20169, 20187, 22172, 22191, 22192 and 22193.
Sunday, May 2: Prince William's percent-positivity rate declines to 5.6%, county reports 3 more deaths
Prince William County’s rate of COVID-19 cases per capita and its percent-positivity rate declined again over the past week, with the latter falling below 6% -- to 5.6% -- for the first time since late October.
About 42% of the county’s population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and Northern Virginia is now projected to achieve “community immunity” by late June – the earliest in the commonwealth – because of strong demand, according to the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.
The bad news is that the county continues to lose residents to COVID-19, with three new deaths reported since Thursday, including that of a man in his 20s. The deaths of two other Prince William County men, one in his 60s and one in his 70s, were also reported in the last few days, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
The county has now lost a total of four residents in their 20s; 23 Virginians in their 20s have died across the state since the pandemic began.
This week’s decline in cases marks a pivot from recent weeks, when COVID-19 cases in Prince William County were either in “slow growth” or stuck in a plateau, as Virginia raced to get as many people vaccinated as possible before more contagious variants of COVID-19 took hold.
The B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the United Kingdom, now accounts for about 60% of the state’s new cases, but the vaccines appear to be working against the spread, the institute said in its most recent weekly report.
“With pandemic fatigue, variants could push us back into crisis mode. For the past several weeks it has been unclear which side was ahead,” the report said. “This week, at least, it looks like our continued vigilance is giving vaccines an edge.”
Uncertainty remains
Despite this, vaccines still need residents’ help to win the race against COVID-19 and its variants, and demand for the vaccine appears to be slowing in some parts of the state.
“Even with just 44% of Virginians vaccinated, and eligibility open to every Virginian age 16 and over, we are beginning to see appointments unfilled, and doses left on shelves,” the report states. “Like the race against variants, terms like vaccine hesitancy mask a simple truth: We can only win this race if we choose to. Vaccines do not work unless people take them.”
“Herd immunity” is “community immunity”
Although data on vaccine hesitancy is still sparse, the UVA Biocomplexity Institute has developed regional estimates using currently available sources of information, which shows regional variation in vaccine acceptance.
If this persists, it will have an impact on “community immunity,” a synonym for herd immunity, that suggests herd immunity will be achieved on the regional level.
According to the analysis, Northern Virginia could reach community immunity in June or July, while other regions may not reach it at all this year.
“The VDH and its partners are working on getting the vaccine to more communities, including accelerating outreach efforts and mobile clinics. Ultimately, however, vaccines can only win this race if we choose to take them. Virginia's health is in our hands,” the weekly report notes.
Local cases
The seven-day average for new daily cases reported across Virginia was 1,032 on Saturday, May 1, down nearly 15% from the seven-day daily average of 1,214 on Saturday, April 24.
That's below the mid-March seven-day daily average of 1,291 cases, the previous post-holiday low, and at about the level Virginia last saw on Oct. 23, 2020, before cases began an upward climb around the holidays.
Locally, the seven-day average of daily cases is 52.1, down 29% from last week’s 74.1. That’s the lowest daily average since Oct. 7, 2020. Average daily cases hit a high of 499 on Jan. 20, 2021, according to the VDH.
Local hospitalizations
There were 12 local hospitalizations reported in the last week, down from 14 the week before. One local resident in their 20s was hospitalized along with two in their 30s, two in their 40s, one in their 50s, four in their 60s and two in their 70s, according to VDH data.
The number of people hospitalized across the state on Saturday, May 1, dipped to fewer than 1,000. There were 885 people in the hospital, a number Virginia hasn’t seen since Oct. 25, 2020.
The number down 15% in the past week when there were 1,046 people hospitalized on Saturday, April 24.
Of those hospitalized, 224 were in intensive care units, down from 262 last week. There were 128 on ventilators. About 79% of the state's intensive care unit beds are occupied, while 28% of the state's ventilators are in use, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.
Percent-positivity rate
On Saturday, the Prince William Health District’s percent-positivity rate was 5.6% down from the 8.3% reported last week.
Prince William no longer has highest percent-positivity rate in Northern Virginia. That distinction again goes to the Rappahannock Health District, which includes Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. It is reporting a percent-positivity rate of 7.6%, down from 8.9% last week.
Statewide, the rate was 4.7%, down from last week's 5.7%, according to VDH data.
Rate of infection per 100,000 residents
The Prince William Health District's rate of infection per capita dipped again this week falling from 15.8 per 100,000 residents to 11.1, a decline of about 29%.
The Rappahannock Health District is reporting the highest rate of infection per capita in Northern Virginia, with 18.2 per 100,000 residents, down from 20.7 last week.
Any rate of infection above 20 per 100,000 residents is considered "very high," while case rates between 10 and 20 are considered "high," according to the RAND Corporation, which analyzes Virginia's COVID-19 metrics.
COVID-19 rates of infection per capita in the region ranged from a low of 3.8 per 100,000 residents in the City of Manassas to a high of 18.3 per 100,000 residents in Spotsylvania County.
Statewide, the rate of cases per capita was 12.1, down from 14.3 last week.
ZIP Code data:
Average daily cases declined or remained the same in 18 of the county's 20 ZIP Codes last week, while rising in only two.
Average daily cases rose in ZIP Codes 20136 and 22172.
Average daily cases remained the same in nine ZIP Codes: 20119, 20137, 20169, 20181, 20187, 22125 and 22134, according to VDH data.
Average cases were down in 11 local ZIP Codes: 20109, 20110, 20111, 20112, 20143, 22025, 22026, 20155, 22191, 22192 and 22193.
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May 31, 2021 at 12:22AM
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UPDATED: Local COVID-19 numbers stay low, but county reports 2 more deaths - Prince William Times
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