States have begun releasing plans for reopening the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, but it’s still unclear how or when we could see college football.
Because it will likely rely on the reopening of college campuses, the plan moving forward is slightly more complicated than that of a restaurant or small business.
According to leaders and experts around the NCAA, the plans for college football range from starting on time with no issues to playing without fans or canceling the season completely.
Here’s a look at some of the most popular options for college football in 2020:
Obviously this is the worst-case scenario and would involve the NCAA determining that the season couldn’t be pushed back, cut short, or played without fans.
ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit said earlier this month that he would be shocked if there was football played in 2020.
“I’ll be shocked if we have NFL football this fall, if we have college football. I’ll be so surprised if that happens,” Herbstreit said, according to TMZ. “Just because from what I understand, people that I listen to, you’re 12 to 18 months from a vaccine. I don’t know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball. I just don’t know how you can do it with the optics of it.”
This currently seems like the least likely scenario moving forward. All team activities are currently canceled and in-person recruiting has been locked into a dead period until at least the end of May.
According to ESPN’s Chris Fowler, there’s a path to the season starting on time, but it’s going to be extremely difficult. Fowler broke down what needs to happen on Instagram, and according to AL.com, he thinks time is running out.
“The first scenario is the season starts on time and the season isn’t altered much,” Fowler said earlier this month. “Time is running out, though, unless you think 4-6 weeks is a whole lot of time. Because I’m told by the end of May, there has to be clarity and if you are going to have college campuses open, which you will have to bring the players back, that’s about the deadline to get things going on time.”
How much time coaches need to get their teams ready is up for debate. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelley told ESPN that things could work if practice restarted by July 1. Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, North Carolina’s Mack Brown and Virginia’s Bronco Mendenhall all think a restart by August 1 could be enough time.
“If you can’t start training your football team by July 1, you’re going to need at least four weeks,” Kelly said, according to CBS. “Strength and conditioning coaches are going to want at least six (weeks). Sports medicine is probably looking at 4-6 weeks.”
Starting the fall season in the spring complicates things — the season could overlap with the NFL and much of the college basketball season — but it’s a scenario that some leaders think is the best option right now.
American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco told ESPN this week that starting in the spring is an option because college football is so financially important.
“Would you be able to play right after the Super Bowl and play an eight- or 10-game schedule and still have a short playoff? You probably could, and you might try hard to do it because football is so important on a lot of levels, but the financial [impact] is huge,” Aresco told ESPN.
Some coaches have expressed major concerns with starting the season in the spring, though. Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi thinks it could throw everything out of rhythm indefinitely.
“Do you know how screwed up the football season would be if we started in February?” Narduzzi told ESPN. “Are you going to play next September, too? You’re running one season into another. You screwed up another spring, you never get back on track.”
Starting the season in an isolated environment without fans has been a common suggestion by many since COVID-19 caused most sports leagues to shut down. That scenario seems less likely upon further evaluation, though.
Kentucky’s Mark Stoops says he doesn’t believe playing without fans is an option because, unlike the NFL, ticket revenue is so important for many college programs.
“Other people are going to make those decisions but I’m not sure that’s a viable option," Stoops told Kentucky Sports Radio. "The other thing compared to the NFL is financially. I think it’s very important to have fans in the stands. Universities are counting on that. We need people in the stands. Before this whole situation happened you heard me talking about it, encouraging our fanbase to pick it and pick up season tickets, get in there because we need them. It makes a difference to us having them in there, both financially and for their support.”
While Stoops’ concerns about finances are certainly warranted, one Power 5 coach tells ESPN that playing without fans isn’t viable because it doesn’t make the players any safer.
“It would be hard to say that it’s not safe for fans to be there, but it’s safe for 100 football players, officials and coaches,” they told ESPN. “We have players from all over the country and what are these players going to do when we’re not playing? Are they going to be sequestered? Are they going to be in one dorm? If we’re doing that, am I going to go home and sleep in my own house? You’re putting all these kids and coaches on the front lines."
Playing a shorter season has been discussed as an option, though anything less than a full 12-game season could be devastating for some schools.
Coordinated kickoffs could prove to be difficult as schools reopen at different intervals, and that could result in some leagues opting for a conference-only schedule.
South Carolina athletic director Ray Tanner told CBS Sports that it’s better than nothing.
“If I told you there would be football, but it’s not possible for everybody to be aligned, you’d still take football, wouldn’t you?” Tanner said last week.
The problem with playing a shortened season or a conference-only schedule is that many schools rely on guaranteed money from non-conference games to operate.
TCU athletic director Jeremiah Donati told ESPN that anything less than that 12-game scheduled could cripple some schools:
“The domino effect, I would have to imagine, would be devastating to those schools,” Donati said. “We play an FCS opponent this year, and it’s pretty widely known that they rely on the revenue they get from the guarantee to play Power 5 schools. I can’t speak for all of them, but if you play two or three of those, that can be anywhere from $2 million to $4 million, and for a smaller school, that’s huge, that’s your lifeline. To pull that away would be absolutely crushing.”
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